Strong statements, coming from senior officials in the United States, and directed at what appears to be a government in Iraq that is not listening, could result in a marked decrease in US aid and assistance there, which would seriously impact Country Risk. Add to that the failure of the central government of Iraq to work with an increasingly assertive Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and raising Country Risk for Iraq would seem to be the prudent step.
Iraq has continued to allow Iranian aircraft, engaged in the delivery of munitions, and possibly IRGC agents, to Syria, overflying Iraqi airspace. Ostensibly "humanitarian" and nonlethal aid, Iraq does not require the aircraft to land for inspection. This is irritating the United States, and could result in an immediate decrease in US aid and assistance. The Iraqi economy could be affected.
Therefore, compliance officers should monitor the situation; if Iraq's noncompliance with US wishes in these arms shipments to Syria results in a diminution of US assistance, you should reassess your estimate of Country Risk for Iraq.