Kenneth Rijock

Kenneth Rijock

Sunday, April 21, 2013

RAISE COUNTRY RISK ON AFGHANISTAN


Disturbing reports from Afghanistan, where foreign company managers resident in Kabul are being brought up on criminal charges when they have a civil business dispute with an Afghan company, make me wonder whether we should raise Country Risk levels so high as to red-line the country as an unacceptable business risk for all purposes. The obscene levels of corruption, the deliberate distancing of the regime from its American ally, for purely political and tribal purposes, the massive exit of dirty greenbacks to the UAE, and the growing strength of the Taliban, all point to a no-win situation for Western business, especially the extension of credit.

Whilst I hesitate to compare Afghanistan to the now-deceased "Republic" of Vietnam in 1972, the parallels are there; a soon-to-be-gone Western sponsor, a dedicated and even rabid opposing military force, and a culture of corruption that poisons the country; they are all there.

Raise Country Risk for Afghanistan to the highest level, prior to unacceptable risk; you may want to go further; I have.


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