Monday, November 10, 2014


The Nigerian military is losing most of its battles with Boko Haram, including a recent one only 2 km from the frontier with Niger. More ominously, soldiers are fleeing the battlefield, rather than engage the enemy; we have seen a number of incidents where Nigerian troops choose to cross international borders, and avoid contact with BH, by relocating to adjacent countries.

The latest mass desertion, which involved approximately 2000 from the Nigerian Army, ended up with the troops in the Republic of Niger. Nigerian news media, quoting army sources, falsely claimed that they had been defeated in combat, but eyewitnesses in Niger have reported that the magazines clipped to the Nigerian soldiers' rifles were full; they had not fired upon Boko Haram troops, and had shamefully fled.

Boko Haram is, candidly, winning in Northern Nigeria, and there does not appear to be sufficient leadership in the Government of Nigeria, or its military, to stand up to them. Remember, BH enjoys serious financial support from a number of treasonous  Nigerian PEPs who obviously see the handwriting on the wall, and are funding their arms purchases; BH also has a number of other criminal, as well as legitimate, means of raising money.

The West, save the incident where the schoolgirls were kidnapped by BH, and taken as wives, is far too busy with other emergencies to pay sufficient attention to the threat of BH, let alone formulate any aid that woulds tip the balance in favor of the Government of Nigeria.

The objective assessment is that Boko Haram will eventually take over all of Nigeria, and there does not seem to be any Nigerian military unit able to beat it. For that reason, while there is time now to trim any financial exposure,  repatriate or move assets out of Nigeria, and make plans to close bank branches or representative offices, before suicide bombers target your offices there, you need to move on this.

I believe that one should substantially raise Country Risk on Nigeria at this time, and keep it at very elevated levels, until and unless the Government of Nigeria can field an army that will defeat it in the field. Otherwise, I fear that Boko Haram will be the ultimate victor.

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