Wednesday, December 28, 2016


Prime Minister Hariri
Saad Hariri, formerly known as one of Hezbollah's most powerful opponents, since the assassination of his father, has returned to politics, as Lebanon's Prime Minister, and made statements that can only be interpreted as bellicose, and in full support of Hezbollah's warlike statements, concerning its bogus position on territory located in the Golan Heights. This turnabout in Hariri's endorsement of taking action, obviously against Israel, to invade the Mount Dov/Shebaa Farms area, raises the prospects of a Third Lebanese War, and substantially increases Country Risk for Lebanon.

The newly-installed Prime Minister, in parroting the Hezbollah party line against Israel, in making a spurious territorial claim not supported by either historical fact, French colonial surveys, or the findings of the United Nations, Syria or Israel. If the Shebaa Farms issue, manufactured by Hezbollah, to maintain claims against Israel, after it withdrew from Lebanon, becomes official Lebanese national policy, the chances of a future war with Israel become much greater than we have seen, since Hezbollah troops became bogged down in the Syrian civil war quagmire.

If Hariri persists in his position, and the formerly effective opposition to Hezbollah policy in Lebanon dissolves, Then the designated terrorist organization could initiate yet another costly war with Israel, resulting in widespread destruction of Lebanese infrastructure, including the probable destruction of the critical Beirut banking sector. Given that the financial services industry dominates the Lebanese economy, and the other industries that fund the government, tourism and trade, would also greatly diminish after another war, universal government support for Hezbollah policies, could prove fatal for the economy of Lebanon.

Country Risk for Lebanon will increase exponentially, should widespread, across the board political party support for Shebaa Farms, become an uncomfortable reality. In that case, Country Risk, for the most popular financial center in the Middle East, will skyrocket upwards.            

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.