POST-CIP, ANTIGUA WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FUND ITS SWOLLEN GOVERNMENTAL AGENCY STAFFING, RESULTING IN MASSIVE LAYOFS AND SERIOUS ECONOMIC CONTRACTION

Small nation with far too many on the government payroll

While the ruling monarch of the United Kingdom may have recently blessed its former colonial possession, Antigua and Barbuda, with his presence during the meeting of the leaders of the Commonwealth of Nations, when Britain granted independence to the two island state, it left it with a dysfunctional economy whose sole industry supporting a tax base was its tourism, which has been insufficient alone to sustain the nation, which has a growing population.

The most accurate estimates available today show Antigua and Barbuda have a total population around 95,000. The country's government reportedly has as many as 15,500 public sector employees, which amounts to close to one third of the total estimated active work force of 54,000 individuals. This is an extraordinary percentage, which has evolved due in large part to the unavailability of employment positions in the depressed local economy. As approximately 15% of Antigua's government budget comes from CIP revenue, the anticipated loss of such a significant portion of revenue after June 2028 will result in massive layoffs and termination of government workers, because there simply will not be sufficient funds on hand to pay their salaries.

Such a major loss of income for government workers will have a knock-on effect on the already fragile economy, as fired public sector staff will not have cash to make the purchases that fuel the economic machine, involving retail purchases, as well as paying their recurring monthly fiscal obligations. The entire local economy will all but grind to a halt, due to the huge amount of newly unemployed residents, all of whom cannot sustain their standard of living.

Many of the approximately 5000 Antiguans who hold university degrees, or the equivalent, most of whom could only find government employment in the small island economy, and who generally enjoy income higher than the rest of the public, will be terminated, and their lack of income will have a serious impact upon all sectors of the economy.

This is why the country's Prime Minister, Gaston Browne, has been desperately seeking some sort of accommodation with the European Commission, attempting gain economic aid to replace the soon-to-be-gone CIP revenue. His statements that the loss of CIP money will only cause Antigua to lose its current financial cushion ignore the sad reality that the country's principal employer, the government, will in 2028 at the latest lose the ability to pay its public sector staff, crashing the fragile local economy. This is what happens when a government becomes so dependent upon a funding source that it neglects to develop and diversify the country's economy; the badly needed new industries and good jobs were never created with CIP revenue. Being developmentally lazy will soon come back to haunt Antiguans in their pocketbooks, and their short-sighted leadership is to blame.