NO MATTER HOW THE EUROPEAN COURT OF JUSTICE RULES NEXT WEEK ON MALTA'S CBI PROGRAM, THE EAST CARIBBEAN STATES LOSE

The long-awaited ruling by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) on the issue of the Republic of Malta's IIM (Citizenship by Investment) passport sales program, is anticipated to be issued on or about April 29, 2025. Malta is the sole European Union Member state to still operate CBI passport sales, after scandal and EU pressure ruled in the termination of the programs in Cyprus and Bulgaria in 2020 and 2022, respectively.

The European Commission's non-nonsense attitude towards CBI amongst its members, holding that such programs "undermine both the essence and the integrity of EU Citizenship", is no secret, although there is some internal disagreement about the right of a Member state to maintain such a scheme. Therefore, we are in the dark regarding how the Court will most likely decide, regarding Malta's "Individual Investor Program."

Whatever the decision, the impact upon the five Eastern Caribbean (EC) states that sell citizenship & passport programs will be significant:

(1) If the Court rules against Malta, forcing the program to be terminated, you can expect that legislation currently pending before the EU, cancelling visa-free access for olders of EC passports, to become law, eliminating the most valuable aspect of an EC CBI passports to potential purchasers, who will then flock to other jurisdictions which still have that travel privilege.

(2) IF the ECJ rules in favor of keeping Malta's IIM CBI program, most observers believe that it will spawn a rush by other EU member states to acquire new CBI programs, in essence offering a better mousetrap to investors, most likely at a lower cost, creating marketplace conditions which will elbow the EC states out of their current favored position with investors.

Therefore, in our humble opinion, the ECJ decision, either way, is a lose-lose for the five Eastern Caribbean CBI states.Whether some will close their programs is a distinct possibility, although we believe that Grenada, the only one that also offers E-2 Treaty Investor Visa ability to the United States, will survive changing market conditions.

We have to assume that the Prime Ministers and CIP officials of the five EC CBI/CIP states that met this week in Antigua to discuss the current situation are looking at the future of their programs, and wondering if their golden egg-laying goose, the cash flow they have long used to cover the salaries of their grossly inflated number of public servants and staff will soon be dead. This could very well be an existential moment for CBI in the Caribbean; stay tuned.